Updated: Nov 4, 2020
The Sterling/Aussie pair is a fast moving pair with many current factors in play. The Aussie is in the midst of a drop as the RBA starts considering negative rates and Brexit negotiations seem to be stalled.
Looking at the chart below there are many signs of possible break up, which is suggests that Brexit should be resolved while RBA actually going negative. It looks like we may be in for a major shift to the upside in this pair. Lets take a look.
We see the pair broke the down-trend back in June and began a long sideways move of accumulation. It had, what looks like, a false breakdown in September. It has no recovered and is trading within a slight "megaphone" channel. The channels usually break the opposite direction of the previous prevailing trend. In this case, the opposite direction would be to the upside. This is our base case over the next couple weeks for this pair. We will be paying special attention to any break of the 1.8300 level on heavy volume.